Russia Brand Sales : 2024

When Russia invaded Ukraine, Western car brands were withdrawn from the market. Russian brands benefited but couldn't fully compensate. With haste Chinese brands took advantage of the situation.

I have some data here of which I cannot be certain of its accuracy but it does look plausible. Most of the top spots are Chinese and the sales volumes are sizable. Haval got close to 200,000 and four in total exceeded 100,000.

Sales for brands from elsewhere dwindled as stock ran dry. Or did it? Data coming from Russia suggested alternative ways to get some cars were being established.

The problem is getting accurate information about it. Russian data has always been variable depending on the source for various reasons. Deciding the best one to use is a bit of a lottery. Here is one.

What does it show about Western brands? Toyota, Kia and Hyundai lead with BMW not too far behind. After that most are quite small in comparison. 

Summary: How accurate it is cannot be proved one way or another. The Russian and Chinese figures are more likely to be correct. 

As for cars from elsewhere, if the numbers are correct, then some entrepreneurs are skilled operators. 

Whether the embargo works or is circumvented, it won't affect the chances of peace and people will continue to die as the war rages on. When will they ever learn?

Picture sources:

Haval Pоссии above

Chery Pоссии below

PS. If anyone can add more or clarify the situation, please leave a comment. 

 

Russia Car/LCV Sales : 2024 (Jan-Jun)

The AEB or the Association of European Business has been the source of sales by brand in Russia. As manufacturers abandoned plants in Russia and importers officially stopped importing, Lada and Chinese brands filled the passenger car void and Russian LCV manufacturers did the same in that segment.

An unusual aspect was that perhaps some sort of black market emerged where cars were still entering the country of brands that had officially left. They weren't broken down into marques but the numbers were not unsubstantial. 

Now the AEB is only reporting the top ten LCV sales by model, which are Russian brands. They also let us know that 703,765 car / LCV sales were sold for the six months of the year. 50,862 were unofficial imports through "alternative supply channels" for a total of 754,627. 

Why are sales of even official imports by brand no longer given? Well, they were all from Chinese manufacturers who maybe didn't want to be seen as selling cars in Russia. I'm speculating there but I can't think of another reason. 

So what we do know is that the best selling LCV in Russia is the GAZ Gazelle with 3,618 units sold, down from 3,923 in 2023. The UAZ Classic Commercial registered 1,228 units (1,211), the GAZ Sobol (1,009, up from 693) was next and so it goes down from there. Riveting stuff.  I can't see the point of future reports about Russia unless the data improves or an interesting development takes place. 

Russia Top Model Sales : 2023

The list below covers the top thirty or so, perhaps a few models near the lower reaches of the chart missing. Lada Granta is the mainstay of the market at the moment. Recent Granta sales going back six years are as follows:

2022 - 97,500

2021 - 113,200 

2020 - 126,100 

2019 - 137,200

2018 - 108,300 

2017 - 93,700

So the 206,100 for 2023 is much higher than historical numbers. In fact, that is a record for the Granta model.

The Niva 4x4 is next followed by mostly Chinese models. The UAZ Patriot (pictured above) isn't selling in as big a numbers of course but it still managed a 12% increase. It looks made to negotiate Russian roads. 

With imports presumably still subject to import duty, few cars are currently assembled here and able to avoid that tax. Maybe Chinese brands will soon be assembling more locally. Despite that, I cannot recall that many large increases as we see below. Of course, it is an artificial situation that has created that. Brands from the east are making hay while the sun shines.

Data source: AEB.

Russia Light Vehicle Sales : 2023

Many car brands have been disappearing from the Russian car market. 

Registrations for cars sold by official importers were up 37% to 937,000. For unofficial imports, they were up 85% and their sales came to 129,000 units. Combined, registrations were + 58% to 1,128,000. 

In recent years sales have been around the 1.6 million mark or 400,000 per quarter so current registrations are still down but on the improve and maybe not as much as you might have thought. 

It becomes obvious the sanctions aren't working as well as expected and as time passes less so. Why? There is an ally to the east of Russia (as well as others) who is benefitting from dealing with Russia. There are also other unofficial imports through brokers.

Renault had to walk away from its extensive operations in Russia and whatever benefit that was supposed to bring isn't clear to me. It is now locally owned and still making cars. That's life. 

Lada took a 31.3% share YTD, a more than useful improvement compared to recent years and the best since 2006. Haval jumped to second with 10.5% of the market. A few departing brand names still appear on the list but many seemed able to exit swiftly. 

On the car side of things, the brands that are replacing the Western ones are clearly seen. The vacuum caused by this exodus has given Chinese brands an opening they are not spurning. The Tank brand arrived recently and is already about to enter the top ten. 

The top picture is the Lada Granta which is still selling well despite supposed parts issues. The next picture down is the Haval F7. Then below the chart is a photo from Chery's Russian website, showing the Tiggo 7's rough road prowess. Impressive.

The 'Diff' column shows market share change.

Data source: AEB.

Russia Model Sales : 2022

Passenger cars: On the model front, the departure of Western brands is very much having an impact. Russian and Chineseare more prominent. The Granta and Niva are doing the best for Lada as the assembly has restarted for those models. 

Geely assembles cars in Belarus so I assume that is helping that brand. The Coolray was the fifth best selling model in August. I'd probably buy one just for the name alone. 

Of the foreign brands, Hyundai and Kia seem the slowest to be exiting, possibly due to higher stock levels. One would assume by now they will all have cleared the decks so to speak.

Data source: AEB.

Light Commercials: Russian LCV manufacturers GAZ and UAZ have always been fairly strong anyway but for now at least they have the market much to themselves. Chinese firm DFM is already getting in on the act and that may be the start of many more Chinese models to come.

Russia Sales : 2022

Registrations for December were -50% and for 2022 -59%. As dealers ran out of stock, sales fell for most brands and for local assembly procuring components. The '+/- diff' column below is for market share change so although Lada for example gained 30% in market share, its sales were actually -46%. The larder is almost bare.

Despite the problems for local manufacturers, Lada leads and will continue to do so provided they can make cars. Other local brands GAZ and UAZ increased their share too but in a collapsed market surely cold comfort. Chinese brands such as Haval, Chery and Geely upped their share as well and it will be interesting to see if they hold back sales or push for more. 

Luxury brand sales are not included as they are not reported but surely demand for such cars is limited with sanctioned hitting the wealthy. Premium brands are listed below though. These are grim times for car dealers in Russia. 

Data source: AEB.

Russian Car Market New Direction

The Russian car market is protected by import duty so brands with any volume of note had assembly plants. Sanctions came and foreign producers decided to pull out. Lada was owned so by Renault so that was an uncertain situation too. 

Renault gave away its ownership, leaving the national car maker to find its own way. With Lada, some Chinese assembly and a few local light commercial companies, it didn't look too flash. Of course, there are plenty of cars for Russians to drive around in so it wasn't a big deal for now but in time an issue of growing concern.

A quick overview of domestic registrations shows August '22 they were -62% and -64 YTD so were understandably well down and August was par for the YTD figure. Where can new stock be obtained? 

After a pause, Lada first started production of the Granta but without ABS, airbags, belt tensioners or an immobilizer. It now features two front airbags so that's an improvement. Shortly thereafter, the Niva Legend also recommenced but the Vesta, Largus and X-Ray are not being made and Lada has had problems bringing them back into production. 

The other source to tap into is China, not large suppliers of cars at present with import duty on anything imported impacting on the price unless large scale assembly is embarked on. Currency fluctuations and reputations affected by dealing with Russia will also be issues to consider. 

Below are sales for August and already we can see Lada and Chinese brands taking over as others sell off existing stock. All the brands doing best are local and Chinese (yellow shading). Lada's sales increased 75% on July while market share has gone up from 18% to 43% compared to August '21. However, with sales well down, volume was actually down too, albeit only to a slight degree. 

Data source: AEB.

Belarus Sales : 2021

The Geely Coolray was the top selling model in its range.
I don't know much about it but I do like the name.

                                                                                                                                    This country is closely aligned with Russia so there is no surprise that Lada is the best selling brand. It has been so for the past three years and is tightening its grip on the top spot. Geely from China is next and is the main supplier for that country. It has an assembly plant in Belarus although production volume is well short of what was expected when the plant opened in 2017.  

Data source: BAA.

Russia Top 50 Sales By Model : 2021

I colour coded the list to show where brands historically originated. Europe is prevalent due in no small part to Lada and its owner Renault. I put Korea as a separate entity as the duo from that nation are popular here. Japan is also well represented as seen by the salmon colour. Finally, Chinese brands are making their presence felt as they improve their rankings. 

Russia Car/LCV Sales : 2021

Registrations were down 20% in December but up 4% for the year in total. Quite a common situation with supplies being limited. The '+/-' column below is comparing market share variance for 2021 with 2020. One minor difference is the 2020 figure included some luxury marques but not for 2021. The numbers involved are extremely small. 

Variance from 2020 isn't noticeable at the top of the list, the top four all lost 2% market share. How unsual! Lada leads the market and did have its biggest share since 2010 for the first six months. Chinese brands are quite popular here and increasing their presence. It does have an import duty on cars not assembled locally which makes things challenging for brands not doing so. 

Chery has an upmarket brand, the Exceed. As it assembles JLR vehicles in China, I wonder if it's learning a few things about quality as its cars were not very good a few years back. Ford now only sells light commercial vehicles but luckily the data includes these vehicles. Its cars used to be very popular in years past. 

Point of interest: 1,000 electric cars were sold in Russia in 2021. That would have to be some sort of record for the lack of take up of said cars. The government is intending to introduce subsidies in 2022. Moscow buses are switching to electric so there is movement in that direction. 

Data source: AEB.

Updated 24/02/2021.

Russia - Lada vs Korea : 2010-21

Belarus Sales: 2020

I have been sitting on this data, holding back due to its variability at times. Makes can come and go, perhaps depending on if they are affiliated with the importers association BAA or not. I went ahead anyway. Registrations for 2020 were -18% which was a common occurrence with Covid. The '+/-' column below is comparing the market share variance of 2021 with 2020.

Lada is establishing itself at the top despite a poor year, with Geely increasing strongly now in second. Renault is definitiely pulling back on volume as may be the case with VW too. UAZ popped up out of nowhere to claim 10th spot, confirming my comment on unusual variability. 

Lada Production : 2016-20

The models in the chart below are made at two facilities, one at Izhevsk making the Vesta and the rest sourced from Togliatti. Two models based on Ladas and made for Nissan are also made at Togliatti but are being phased out. In addition, two Renault models are also made there but not counted here. They appear in the Renault partner plant post. 

Few Ladas make it beyond Russia and the Dacia brand is similar in target audience so there seems no point in both going head to head for the same customers. So Lada may remain a brand destined largely for local consumption. 

Renault Production Russia, Romania & Slovenia : 2016-20