23 November 2022

Lucid Deliveries / Production : 2022

Lucid: luː.sɪd : Clearly expressed and easy to understand.

The style of the car measures up to the meaning of the word lucid. It has a large range for an electric car and fast acceleration. Overdo the latter and you lose out on the former but that's obvious. It's a spacious luxury car that is sleek and classy looking.

It seems the main problem is getting production and assembly quality up to scratch. That's to be expected as car making is complex but when customers put in orders, delays are not ideal. However, if I was ordering from a startup company for a car not yet built I would expect it may not all be plain sailing. 

The figures below show a few deliveries in 2021. I believe the Q2 production numbers reflect issues with assembly quality control and the big hike of over 200% the following quarter due to resolving that.

The goal for 2022 was 20,000 units produced. That was scaled back early this year to 12-14,000 and the current estimate is 6-7,000 units. The last figure is definitely doable. requiring between 2,300 to 3,300 cars manufactured. 

Picture source: Lucid

Rivian Deliveries / Production : 2021-22

It's not easy starting up in the car industry. Huge upfront costs and years getting from an idea to a fully operational and utilised assembly line. Rivian's focus has been with a pickup truck and an SUV. Both look very large but this is the USA where big is good. For me, it's the opposite.

Production and deliveries started in late 2021 with about a thousand units each. For the three quarters so far this year, both P & D are up over 1000%, expected as the company ramps up. Sales for 2022 have the first quarter at 10% of the YTD figure, Q2 a third and Q3 a half. Production favoured Q1 slightly.

Building up inventory isn't an issue as meeting existing orders from patient customers is addressed. Early expectation was to build 50,000 units in 2022 but that was scaled back to 25,000 early in 2022. The 25k level is expected to be met this year. 

Quarterly increases in deliveries have been more variable than production but they are both going nicely in the right direction. Reaching the 25k mark for production will require just over 10,500 units being built in Q4 and a 45% increase which on paper at least looks definitely attainable. 

Picture source: Rivian.

09 November 2022

Europe Sales : 2022 (Jan-Sep)

Registrations for September were +8% and for the first nine months of 2022 -10%. The 'Diff' figure compares nine months of this year with the total 2021 share. Green means market share gain but not necessarily an increase in sales. 

VW is hanging on to its double digit share but still holds a clear gap to second. Toyota meanwhile is gradually improving its position with steady, incremental gains. VW will not want to relinquish top spot to its global rival. Some of the smaller brands are doing well, green being a prominent colour further down the list.

As new brands arrive due to a push for greener cars, unusual names are popping up, some not listed here. The Hongqi should sell well in Italy. The German electric start up brand e-Go is not lacking in confidence. JACs are starting to hit the road too. 

Data source: ANE.