UK Vehicle Production : 2024 (Jan-Mar)

The global car markets had been underserviced by stock for some time with COVID and supply issues so pent up demand meant that production was strong. That seems to have been sated and volume is slipping. Prices hav also been climbing as demand exceeded supply. Are prices now going to soften to keep factories busy? 

Passenger car production in the UK fell 27% in March but thanks to a good first two months numbers were still up 1%. One could expect that 2024 will not be the equal of the year before.  

Commercial vehicle volume was -19% in March but still up 27.4% YTD. Production for the home market has taken a battering, -28% in March and -13% YTD. Exports were -13% In March but up an impressive 58% YTD.

Put it all together and it mirrors the passenger car data due to the overwhelmingly greater volume that is involved. The numbers aren't flash but considering the apathy within the UK for its motor vehicle industry hardly surprising.  

With two manufacturers providing sales figures each month, they are listed here. Nissan accounted for 32% of the total and Toyota 13%. I appreciate their openness. 

Data source: SMMT, manufacturers.

Singapore Passenger Car Sales : Q1 2024

Registrations were up 42% in March and 26% YTD. With the artificial way in which car sales are handled here, the ups and downs tell us little other than how many certificates were available at any given time. 

We can learn more when looking at brands. Toyota / Lexus combination leads although if separated it would be Mercedes-Benz in front. BYD has come from nowhere to third, elbowing BMW out of the way in the process, despite the latter doing well.

As for changes, the Toyota / Lexus market share is the lowest since 2013, BMW the highest since that year ironically. Nissan's share is the best since 2017 but Audi is currently residing at its lowest point going back to 2008. It's also of note that for 2024, Rolls Royce registrations are down 73% on last year's complete 2023, Bentley 55% lower and Ferrari off 77%. 

While all the variances above are not what one would normally see, in a market that is controlled with a limited certificate system, not all that surprising. 

Data source: LTA. 

Korea Passenger Car/LCV Sales : Q1 2024

Apart from some high ticket brands, the data below covers the vast majority of sales. The total market and imports are both down 12% YTD. As a market that heavily favours locally made - both with steep import duty and occasionally other means - it is dominated by a few domestic brands. Kia for now leads but has an ongoing lead change dogfight with Hyundai. 

Hyundai's premium marque Genesis is doing well while KG Mobility (formerly SsangYong) moved into fifth place courtesy of a fast falling Mercedes-Benz. Chevrolet is mainly locally made vehicles and Renault Korea was formerly known as Samsung. 

Imports lost two more marques for 2024 in the form of Jaguar and DS. The way some of the brands at the lower end of the list are faring, there may be more to follow. 

Data source: Kaida, Kama.

Japan Passenger Car Sales : Q1 2024

Scandals don't go down well in Japan. The culture is about face and losing it brings shame. Open apology and remorse mitigates some of the lost face but not all of it. That's how I see things but I'm not an expert in Japanese culture.

Daihatsu has recently been exposed for fraudulent vehicle testing. Production was halted for months as a result as the sales data below clearly shows. Toyota is the owner of Daihatsu and they haven't been immune to the fallout. Mazda obtains cars from them and may have been affected but less than the other two mentioned.

The Daihatsu Tanto Fun Cross (on the right) sums things up rather well. No fun for the company and no doubt has made the parent company Toyota very cross. It could be a while before Daihatsu is out of the woods over this scandal.

Total sales were down 16% with import brands down just 1%. The data below compares Q1 of 2024 with a complete 2023. Toyota losing 12% of its share in a market down 16% means Q1 2024 volume is actually 28% lower than 2023. Ouch! Daihatsu is much worse, of course. 

This has enabled other Japanese brands unaffected by the scandal to improve their situation markedly. As the year progresses, things may gradually return closer to what they were before but the damage already wreaked will not be fully erased this year and perhaps beyond.  

Data source: JAMA, JAIA.

Lucid Deliveries/Production : Q1 2024

Lucid has released its Q1 data for both deliveries and production. It's a tough time to be starting up a car company due to intense competition and electric sales that are no longer increasing in leaps and bounds.

Deliveries: A positive figure here, the best since the company started deliveries at the end of 2021. It's also 40% up on the first quarter of 2023. That increase needs to be maintained at the very least which would put deliveries at 8,400 by the end of the year. 

Production: The Q1 figure was surprisingly low. Apparently, something like 800 cars have been assembled in Saudi Arabia so far making that figure even more puzzling. Production did exceed deliveries in 2023 so was this about reducing inventory? It is only one quarter and things could change. The goal for car assembly to be in the region of 9,000 cars for the year. 

New model: Lucid will release the Gravity SUV later in the year (see picture below). Surely that will be a model with more potential as SUVs are what most people want. The majority shareholder Saudi Public Investment Fund's financial assistance has been critical in getting this new model into production. 

Data & picture source: Lucid. 

Aston Martin Sales : 2022/23

A brief history: In January of 1913, Robert Bamford and Lionel Martin decided to make their own cars. In 1947, a wealthy industrialist David Brown saw Aston Martin as an investment opportunity. Then from 1963 forward, AM got a lot of publicity as James Bond's preferred set of wheels. Lawrence Stroll took control of the company in 2020. 110 years of history in total.

Regions: Wholesale deliveries were up 3% for 2023. There was a dramatic regional shift in volume during this brief period. The Americas increased 3% to get roughly a third of total volume. The shift came with EMEA (Europe/Middle East/Africa less UK) up 32% but Asia/Pacific down 20%. I'm assuming China was the main reason for the latter but unlike other companies, China isn't shown as a stand alone region so we can but speculate. The UK was up 3%, replicating the Americas but with less volume. 

Models: The GT/sports car collection take top honours here with just over 3,500 units. The DBX was just shy of 3,000 and the Specials 151 (mostly if not entirely Valkyries). As the DBX is made in Wales, that represents the number of cars made in that Principality.

Data source: Aston Martin. 

BMW Group Plant Production : 2023

Production for BMW, MINI and Rolls Royce was up 12% in 2023. A new joint venture plant came online in China, at Zhangjiagang. It's in partnership with GWM and has started producing electric MINIs. It technically should go under Partner Plants but they are not separated by BMW and this one is so I put it under China .

Germany contributes 35.2% of the total, China 27.5% and the USA 15.4%. The contract plant in the the Netherlands, VDL Nedcar, was going to end its arrangement of assembling MINIs but it is now adding the BMW X1 as well to the MINI. 

BMW must need the capacity and the Oxford plant in the UK has been unable to manufacture all the MINIs that are required for many years now. 

Data source: BMW Group.

Rolls Royce Model Deliveries : 2023

BMW MINI Model Deliveries : 2023

The MINI marque has been in the doldrums for some time now, in terms of units delivered. MINI has been hugely successful since it hit the market in 2001. My take was that BMW was pushing volume too hard and then pulled back. The current level of around 300,000 units is about right for now. Of course, that could change as the brand and the car industry evolves.  

The traditional Hatch contributed just over half of all sales. The Countryman comes in at just over a quarter, with the Convertible and Clubman at about 20% when combined. 

Data source: BMW Group.

Traton Global Model Production : 2023

The heavy vehicle division Traton is going very well for the VW Group. Data for this part of the vehicle industry isn't usually that accessible so here is an uncommon glimpse into it.

MAN is the largest part of this division with 117,000 units made and a 32% increase. That's just over a third of the total. It benefits from also manufacturing 26,500 light commercials but they are counted here. Included also is 5,800 buses.

Scania had a useful 16% increase but couldn't keep up with MAN. It actually sold more heavy trucks than MAN but doesn't have any light vehicles in its range. It made 5,200 buses. 

Navistar is the recently acquired truck brand that was once known as International Harvester. It transitioned through a difficult financial situation to become the Navistar company, a truck and bus maker. VW took full control in 2021. It mainly makes trucks but is also Traton's largest bus manufacturer with 13,500 assembled in 2023.

VW branded heavy vehicles are an exception to the success of Traton. Manufactured vehicles were down 45% after a healthy looking 2022. It seems that they are sold in Brazil and it is a strong player in that market. 

Data source: VW Group.

Regional deliveries: A good spread of sales across the regions, the addition of Navistar helping in that regard. VW heavy trucks drop in volume is shown in the South American figure below. I haven't good 2021 regional figures, hence the blank column. 

VW LCV Global Model Production : 2023

A useful part of the business and nearly 467,000 made in 2023. Recent collaboration with Ford will surely add to profitability too. The medium van range is the most voluminous (163,000) with the small caddy van (86,300) and large Crafter van (70,200) next. The Savreiro compact ute (picture above) is doing well.

Regional deliveries: Europe and South America are the main regions for the lcv division. VW counts the Saveiro as a passenger car and iff I followed suit then it would very much be a European dominated situation. 

Data source: VW Group.

Skoda Global Model Production : 2023

Production appears to have been some way ahead of deliveries in 2022 but back to more even terms a year later. Perhaps a case of building up inventories. 888,000 cars were made which was up 16%. The Octavia medium/large car leads the way with just over 200,000 made. 

Data source: VW Group.

Regional Deliveries:

Here is the brand's achilles' heel if it does have global aspirations. It's too reliant on one region and that only got worse in '23. About 90% of sales come from it. Škoda's not been doing well in China of late but it certainly is a popular brand in Europe and maybe that's enough. 

SEAT/Cupra Global Model Production : 2023

The SEAT and Cupra offensive is now paying dividends for the VW Group, especially the latter. Their combined 2023 production was 533,600 units, up from 420,000 and up 27% for the year.

SEAT: The main brand that has struggled for decades to justify its place in the company. With costs shared with the Group but especially Cupra, things are looking rosy. A 15% after a 27% drop the year earlier is a strong turn around. 

Data source: VW Group.

Cupra: The new stand alone brand with a youthful, sporty image is doing the business. A 109% increase in 2022 follows by a 45% jump in 2023 say it all really. In 2022 there could have been some muddying of the waters between brands regarding the figures as Cupra became fully separated from SEAT. 

Regional deliveries: This is a European brand that is dabbling outside of that region. It is pushing in that regard but it will take time.