29 October 2019

Self Driving Cars Reality

Add to this animals, children, cyclists, debris, road
works etc and it's all too much for technology

Regular readers of this blog will know that my take on the hype over autonomous cars has been less than enthusiastic. One article I wrote on the subject can be found here which contains a Part 2 link. Alternatively, click on the 'Safety' label to the right. True self-driving cars in real world conditions always seemed science fiction to me.

Not long back a top Toyota man tasked with this said it now doubted level 5 autonomous was achievable anytime soon, maybe never. Steve Wosniak (co-founder of Apple) was a strong believer and invested in this but now says he's basically given up on level 5. He said roads offer too many unpredictable scenarios for a self-driving car to handle. He went on to say that the public has been misled into believing autonomous driving could match what a human can do.

So why did companies spend billions on something that may never achieve what was promised? Didn't they have smart people advising them? Aren't clever minds beavering away on this to bring it to a successful conclusion? Because the impossible is just that. As for the advice they got, well they should have hired me instead (wry smile).

Why am I so sure about this, as I have no training in this field? I simply took a step back and looked at the whole scenario. First, I decided that while some humans abuse the privilege of driving, when acting responsibly people have remarkable capabilities to anticipate, evaluate and react to unexpected and varying conditions. Can artificial intelligence even get close to that? Secondly, I believe that the human mind was made by a super intelligent designer and that it has amazing qualities man can never recreate.

19 October 2019

Jaguar i-Pace Sales 2019 (by nation - Jan-Aug)


The i-Pace is gathering pace as cars reach their customers around the world. I am unsure of the production ceiling, I have heard 20,000 pa but Jaguar hasn't stated what it is as far as I know. Anyway, here are some nations that are selling them and that I have data for. If anyone can add to the list, please contact me either by a comment or rdc1234@gmail.com. I would like to be a collaborative effort if possible.

I will update the list during the year.The 2018 totals are first, then comes the 2019 total. No, the Netherlands isn't a typo. It really did roar in 2018 but a change of incentives flattened sales. More countries have been added for 2019, bringing the total to 34 nations listed below. Israel may be slightly higher than listed.

Monthly average sales are 1,400 so far. It would appear that battery supply is the main constraint but other factors will also figure. Data is compiled from many sources so it would be nice to compare it with official Jaguar data, if such were possible. In light of that, the figures are indicative only. A full 2018 is compared with the first eight months of 2019. Last updated 19.10.19


# Nation 2018 2019

1 Norway 1,081 2,645

2 UK 841 2,376

3 USA 393 1,842

4 Germany 191 704

5 Belgium 116 379

6 Switzerland 63 365

7 Portugal 23 325

8 France 130 298

9 Canada 41 295

10 Netherlands 3,495 199

11 Austria 64 170

12 Sweden 78 162

13 Spain 66 140

14 Italy 88 134

15 Australia 39 126

16 Russia 16 96

17 Finland 12 83

18 Turkey 38 76

19 Denmark 12 75

20 New Zealand 2 69

21 Brazil 0 59

22 Poland 16 58

23 Iceland 0 43

24 Korea 0 42

25 RSA 4 42

26 Czech Republic 13 39

27 Ireland 3 36

28 Greece 0 22

29 Romania 0 21

29 Israel 0 19

31 Mexico 2 13

32 Singapore 0 13

33 Slovakia 0 7

34 Slovenia 0 5

34 Estonia 1 4


Others 65 1,761

Total 6,893 12,743

Land Rover Global Sales (By Model) : 2019 (Jan-Sep)


For the first nine months of the year, there were 290,000 new owners of Land Rovers worldwide. Rather than get into which models are up or down in sales, the focus of the data below is on which models have improved their contribution and which ones haven't. The 2019 share is for nine months while the 2018 is the full year.

The range Rover has taken the top spot, with the Discovery Sport has slipped into second. The new Evoque is starting to make its presence felt but it's still early days. The Range Rover can be had with some electrical assistance (as also the RR Sport) and that has sparked things along.


17 18 19 Model 2019 % '19 % '18

3 2 1 RR Sport 60,930 21.0% 18.9%

1 1 2 Disco Sport 60,596 20.9% 23.2%

2 3 3 Evoque 57,679 19.9% 18.1%

6 4 4 Velar 46,063 15.9% 16.1%

4 5 5 Range Rover 39,013 13.4% 13.2%

5 6 6 Discovery 26,042 9.0% 10.5%

7 7 7 Defender 2 0.0% 0.0%


Total 290,325

Regionally, North America is the hot spot for LR (74k) with the UK next (61.5k). Europe is next (59k) and China (48k). Europe should pass the UK by year's end now the two silly months of UK sales have passed.


17 18 19 Region 2019 % '19 % '18

3 1 1 Nth America 74,210 25.6% 24.9%

4 3 2 UK 61,592 21.2% 19.2%

2 2 3 Europe 58,864 20.3% 19.3%

1 4 4 China 48,101 16.6% 18.8%

5 5 5 Rest 47,558 16.4% 17.9%


Total 290,325

Data source: Tata Motors

Jaguar Global Sales (By Model) : 2019 (Jan-Sep)

Wow, what style!

For the first nine months of the year, there were 126,000 Jaguar cars sold worldwide. Rather than get into which models are up or down in sales, the focus of the data below is on which models have improved their contribution and which ones haven't. The 2019 share is for nine months while the 2018 is the full year.

The new E-Pace has been selling well, but the larger F-Pace seems to be holding off the newbie. The XE has been refreshed and going OK but the older XF is slowing, despite its excellent wagon variant. An upcoming major overhaul of the model should kick things along.

The i-Pace is up to fourth with close to 13,000 sales and the F-Type sports car is holding up well, such is the quality of its design. The current XJ is coming to an end and what a fine car it still is, testament to the integrity of the design.


17 18 19 Model 2019 % '19 % '18

1 1 1 F-Pace 36,310 28.8% 31.3%

6 2 2 E-Pace 33,358 26.4% 23.3%

3 4 3 XE 22,456 17.8% 16.8%

- 6 4 i-Pace 12,743 10.1% 3.8%

2 3 5 XF 11,919 9.4% 17.6%

4 5 6 F-Type 5,941 4.7% 4.4%

5 7 7 XJ 3,432 2.7% 2.8%


Total 126,159

Regionally, there isn't much in it, such is the even spread of sales around the world. Europe is first (33k), ahead of the UK (29k) and then North America (25k). China follows (24k) and The Rest (15k) brings up the rear.


17 18 19 Region 2019 % '19 % '18

4 1 1 Europe 33,027 26.2% 26.8%

3 3 2 UK 29,242 23.2% 20.4%

1 4 3 Nth America 25,303 20.1% 19.3%

2 2 4 China 23,848 18.9% 20.7%

5 5 5 Rest 14,729 11.7% 12.8%


Total 126,159

Data source: Tata Motors.