31 October 2021

Serbia Sales: 2021

Registrations for September were +11% and +18% YTD so a strong performance is maintained. The '+/-' column below is comparing market share variance for nine months of 2021 with a full 2020. 

┼ákoda is well in front and extending its lead. That was probably helped by Renault pulling back, which it is doing elsewhere and Ford is of the same mind. Fiat is well placed at second and Toyota moved up three places with a  27% gain in share. As for the rest, there's plenty of shuffling going on.

24 October 2021

Opel & Ford Germany : 1977-2021

Opel and Ford were brands that invested heavily in Germany and both sold well there. For many years they were second and third best selling brands behind VW. Occasionally Mercedes got past Ford into third but would fall back again. In the UK Ford always outsold Vauxhall (Opel) but in Germany, it was the other way around. 

The chart immediately below shows market share and goes up to 20%. The graph covers from 1977 to 1999 and Opel (red) was consistently in the ascendency compared to Ford (blue). What you can't see below is that Mercedes passed Ford again in 1998 and apart from one lapse in 2009, stayed ahead of Ford until today. 

In fact, we can see that toward the end of the graph both Opel and Ford were declining in market share in the country which raises the question as to whether that slide was to be arrested.

Below we see from 2000 to 2021 on a larger scale of 12% share so don't compare the two graphs by physical size but by the percentage numbers on the sides. 

Ford leveled off from 2000 and held its share consistently. Opel's decline continued to 2012 when there was a slight uplift. By 2012 they had both been pushed back by Mercedes, BMW and Audi to fifth and sixth. Apart from a brief moment for Ford in 2019, neither have since matched the three marques that had passed them.

Ford overtook Opel in 2017 and in that same year, Opel was acquired by PSA. Ford then had a mini surge to 2019 then suddenly a change of policy has sent Ford plunging to seventh place by 2021. Opel was seventh in 2020 but is back up to fifth for 2021 in a possible revival of fortunes. 

So what do we learn from all of this? That mainstream manufacturers in have a lot of competition and they have to carefully guard their reputation by offering a strong, consistent product range. 

Opel lost its reputation as a top notch mainstream brand and ended up chasing volume to keep factories busy, but in the process became unprofitable. PSA is working hard to turn that around, focusing on product. That is showing signs of success but it's not a quick fix. 

Ford has done better in regard to maintaining a competitive range but is now following a global strategy of moving away from passenger cars, which will impact on the number of units sold. It needs a strong SUV / crossover range if that is all its passenger car range will be comprised of. 

Much is resting on models such as this for Ford

22 October 2021

EV Registrations NZ : 2016-21

There is a push for greener cars in NZ. Electric cars already get a rebate but there is to be a feebate scheme introduced in April 2022 where low emission vehicles (-146gms) get a rebate, those in a middle band (146-192gms) nothing, and higher emitting ones ( +192gms) a fee. Vehicles over $80,000 can be charged a fee but not earn a rebate. Used imports are included too but not to the same degree.

It will be interesting to see how this works. Will sales of high emitting vehicles boom just prior and low emitting ones (not electric, which already are incentivised) go quiet as that date approaches? One would think so but that would be a one off scenario. For now, let's look at electric car / LCV sales for the past five years and nine months. I've only focused on pure electric and hydrogen, not the other variants which collectively sell in larger numbers. Heavy vehicles are also not included.

Registrations for electric cars and light commercials have grown from 87 to 4,266 (the latter nine months) in quick time. Tesla had a huge September 2021 but will it continue for the remainder of the year? Either way, 2021 is already 178% up on 2020. 

Hydrogen is shown below and that hasn't exactly been a rip roaring success. Refueling infrastructure is an issue for now but maybe the feebate scheme will help. I have always felt there is more potential for fuel cell rather than electric but for now electric well ahead due in no small part to fuel accessibility. 

Electric propulsion for cars is still small in NZ but is moving rapidly forward. More brands are getting in on the act but the pie is growing quickly enough for all to get a decent slice of it. Hydrogen fuel cell is not an option for the time being. 

Electric Vans

Electric vans that travel within a confined area, doing a daily mileage not too demanding are an ideal fit for electric propulsion. I'm surprised more haven't gone that way but the initial cost of purchase is probably a major factor in that. If a van requires a heavy payload, then fossil fuel vans again are the better bet. So what are some of the benefits of an electric van? 

Rebates. Depending on the country, there are incentives to entice buyers.

Running costs. Fewer moving parts should mean a lower maintenance cost and more reliable. Electric is cheaper than fossil fuel.

Image. Being able to claim a clean fleet of vehicles is a big plus.

Charging. It can be done at the end of the day at the place where the van sits while not in use. 

Workplace environment. For a driver spending all day in a van, it's a more serene place to be so less stressful. 

Ease of use. They have instant torque so nippy in traffic and with no gears, it's simpler to drive as well. Just accelerate or brake.

Future proofing. Depends on where you live but if restrictions are put in place to disadvantage vehicles based on emissions, then that one is already sorted. 

Summary. They are not the ideal solution for all van operators but for those doing work suited to such a van then they are a serious alternative to be considered.