The Cybertruck is Dead?

Back in May 2023, I described the Tesla Cybertruck's appearance as hideous and futuristic amateurism. I just couldn't see it selling but I could have been wrong. In this case, I wasn't. 

My negative feelings toward the vehicle isn't universal. It has its apologists as well as its critics. Its handling and acceleration are strengths. Stainless steel is a major negative, although there are advantages to that as well. That material also limited the design to a Tonka toy image. 

Deliveries started at the end of 2023, about two years later than originally planned. Tesla has never given sales figures but it is estimated that about 70,000 were delivered over three years. Its peak year was 2024, when something like 34,000 were sold. Considering Elon Musk apparently predicted 250,000 per annum, it is safe to say actual deliveries were underwhelming. 

It has been announced that the factory where they are being made is going to be repurposed. The Cybertruck will presumably end in the middle of 2027. Unless production is moved to another plant, it's the end of the line. Surely, Tesla knows when something isn't working.

From looks to execution, the whole thing was a disaster. Delays, broken windows at presentations and styling.....well, I guess the last one is subjective. It may not be dead just yet but it would be humane to put it out of its misery. 

Lucid Deliveries : 2026 (Q1-Q3)

Lucid had a tepid start to 2026 with 3,093 vehicles delivered. Considering the fall in electric vehicle sales, it could have been worse but definitely could have been better. A quality issue with a supplier was cited as the reason for the disappointing delivery number.

If that was the case, why were 5,500 units made? Did they make the vehicles and will retro fit the second row seats, which were the problem? If so, then the difference is understandable. Production was up 149% compared to a low Q1 2025 figure. 

Regardless, in Q2, deliveries went up 19% and production up 24%. Then along came Q3 with stronger sales than production. There was a build up of stock, which is now being addressed. Lucid is predicting production for 2026 to be in the 25-27,000 area. 

With one quarter to go for 2026, numbers are down 31% and 44%. Take out Q4 2025 and they are both up 3%! Q4 2025 was big and matching that in 2026 will not be happening. The new CEO has cut back production and stock levels, the latter tying up a lot of capital. A second shift at its Arizona plant has been terminated, laying off about 1,500 employees. 

The market segment Lucid is targeting is very limited. They don't hold their price in the used market. It still suffers from low brand awareness. In summary, the cars seem nice, but the prognosis isn't great. 

Data and photos: Lucid (Gravity model).

Tesla Delivery & Production Figures : 2026 (Q1-Q3)

Tesla deliveries were down 4% in Q3 but production up 2%, both exceeding 1,300,000 YTD. Deliveries have outpaced production for two consecutive quarters, so the inventory build up in Q1 has been dealt with decisively.  

Both deliveries and production are 205 short of 2025 but 2026 still has a quarter to go. YOY and both are up 8% on 2025. I would have thought that was a pleasing situation to be in all things considered.  This would indicate that 2026 volume will be ahead of last year and possibly by a reasonable margin.

Data & photo source: Tesla.

Rivian Deliveries & Production : 2026 (Q1-Q3)

Rivian produced and delivered over 19,000 vehicles in Q3 2026, which is a nice increase. The full year estimate figure remains at the 65,000 to 70,000 region. That will require a Q4  total of 30,000 vehicles. The R2 is ramping up the volume sufficiently to achieve those target numbers. Rivian estimates it will deliver around 20,000 to 25,000 of that model by the end of the year. 

Looking at the data below shows that Q3 deliveries and production are well ahead of the corresponding period in 2025. 2025 has already been reached with a quarter still to come. YOY comparison shows Rivian deliveries are up 29% and production likewise up 36%.

So the current line up is the R1S large SUV, R1T pick up and now the R2 medium sized SUV. In 2027, when the small R3 SUV arrives, the range will be filling out nicely. 

Data & photo source : Rivian (R2 & R1T)

Slate Auto

I like minimalism, the antítesis of the modern day vehicle, which seems to have gone to the local fast food outlet, ordering and supersizing every fat ladened side dish. Simple and lean is out. Complex and obese is the mantra of car design.   

So I like it if someone comes up with things minimalistic, stripped down to the bare essentials. The Slate pick up / SUV fits that description perfectly. It's electric and will do about 300km per charge. The pick up comes in at US$24,950 and SUV US$29,950 as starting points, but with well over a hundred accessories, the price will go up, depending on how you specify it. 

I did an article on the Telo (click here) pick up which is not the same but similar in where it's aiming at. At just over US$40,000, it's more pricey but more sophisticated. The Telo is smaller too. Will they be cross shopped? Maybe not. 

Hopefully there is a strong market for more simple and less bloated vehicles. Why get more than you need? Why pay more than you need? 

Photos and more info: Slade Auto.

 

Lucid Deliveries/Production : 2023-25

Below are Lucid delivery and production figures for the past three years. For figures going back to the beginning, an article on that can be seen by clicking here.

Deliveries were up 55% a nice increase. Production was also up, but this side of the data is less clear. Over 1,000 kits have been sent to Saudi Arabia for assembly there, but how they impact on the figures is unclear. 

While the numbers are modest, the direction is upward, so things are progressing. Getting more vehicles into markets outside of the US would surely now be a priority to continue the growth. 

Data source: Lucid.

Rivian Deliveries / Production Figures : 2023-25

Rivian delivered 42.000 in 2025 which was down 31% in Q4 and -18% for the full year. 

Production was -14% for Q4 and -15% for the complete year. So the 2025 figures are disappointing, although expected. 

Rivian had a target of 41,500 to 43,500 for the year, or about 10,500 per quarter. In 2024 it was just over 12,500 per quarter. 

At first glance, the fact the company made 14,611 for Q1 seems too high. The explanation was that a new model (R2 picture above) is coming in 2026 so later this year production will be compromised as the factory is readied for that. So inventory was being built up to meet sales demand while production is affected. That is how it is panning out.

U.S. federal BEV tax incentives ended at the end of September, 2025. That seems to have affected Q4 deliveries. How that will impact longer term will be watched with interest but it surely has to affect sales. Incentives create an artificially large volume, which is fine if they stay. Not so good when they are withdrawn.

Data & picture source: Rivian.

Tesla Deliveries & Production Figures : 2023-25

As the chart below shows, Tesla deliveries were 636,000 in 2025, down 9%. Q4 showed the largest fall at -16%. Production was slightly higher and Q4 was down only 5%. 

BYD has well and truly passed Tesla with the number of deliveries for electric cars (BEVs). It didn't surprise and I'm not sure how important that is. What is significant is the fall in net profit that seemingly has happened. Competition and withdrawn subsidies, along with other factors, are and will impact the bottom line. 

Data source: Tesla. The 2023/24 article can be seen by clicking here.

Great Minds Think Alike

I was walking past a pick up truck yesterday and said to my other half how there is no way I'd consider such a vehicle due to its excessive length. 

I questioned why it had to have such a long front nose and that for all its size, the rear tray wasn't that big. As a packaging exercise, I opined it was a big fail. There must be a better way.

Then today I came across the Telo MT1. OK, so it's more a city car with a useful rear tray. Yet how many people buy a humungous pick up when all they need is something with the same basic attributes, contained within much smaller dimensions. Well, here is an answer.

It has the same footprint as a three door MINI which admittedly isn't that mini, but that's still impressive. It seats five, uses electricity to propel it along the road and longer, flatter items can be pushed into the cab when extra length is required. 

So an idea with potential. They haven't disclosed where it will be built but it seems it will be outsourced to a manufacturer. Perhaps Tesla may be up for it as it would make a change for them to make a pick up that people actually want to own. (The Telo website link).

Buick China Sales : 2010-2024

Buick has a long history in China and has been a popular brand. When GM entered bankruptcy protection in 2009, decisions had to be made regarding restructuring. Buick was saved due to its strong position in China. We will see how that decision was vindicated by considering sales of the marque in China from 2010 to 2024. 

The figures include only cars made in China but I assume that is the vast majority if not all anyway. Import duty makes that a necessity. Sources can vary as to the numbers involved but in larger volumes of data it's not much of an issue. The chart figures need three zeros added so for example 900 equals 900,000.

2010-14: The chart to the right shows Buick sales went up from just over 500,000 to over 900,000. That was an increase from about 4% market share to just over 4.5%. 

In comparison, for the USA Buick increased from 155,000 to 225,000 with around 1.4% share. That's quite a difference with China well ahead. 

2015-19: Sales went from just over a million to above 1.3 million and then under 900,000. That had Buick reaching 5% market penetration, then falling to around 4.1%. In the US, sales were just over 200,000 per annum and 1.2% share. So the brand was still far more popular in China but the gap was closing. 

2020-24: From just over 900,000 units it plunged to barely over 300,000 by 2024. Its slice of the pie went from about 4.5% to 1.2%. Back home sales were about 170,000 and 1.1% market share. China was still the more important numerically but its share was now similar to the US. I wonder which was now the more profitable.

So what happened? Part of the reason was the Excelle model (photo at top). In 2014 it contributed over 500,000 units to the total (or 60%). By 2020, it was 300,000 (33%) but then the model was phased out and nothing fully took its place, the Envision and GL8 doing their best. 

In 2024 all models fell, some substantially. I assume that was due to giving up on chasing market share at the expense of profit. The issue was also that the market was changing and Buick wasn't keeping up. Electric cars are growing strongly in China and local brands are doing a good job of catering to that shift. 

Buick has introduced an electric brand (Electra, photo below) to cater to the swing toward new energy vehicles as they are referred to in China. How the Buick brand will go in future I'm unsure but then Electra may be the future for Buick in China. 

Rivian Deliveries/Production : 2023-2024

How electric vehicle sales are going in 2024 has been watched with interest by many. Newbies like Rivian have entered an environment of uncertainty and greatly reduced growth. Still, if the product is desirable then there is no reason for pessimism. Below are delivery and production figures for 2024 compared to 2023

Deliveries are to the left and production to the right. Deliveries were up 3% and production down 14%. The % column show the percentage of volume by quarter and the +/- a quarterly comparison with the quarter the year before.

Data & picture source: Rivian.

Rivian estimated a production total of 57,000 which seemed a tad optimistic. Its sales reached 51,600 and production 49,500. In 2023 production was higher as inventory increased. In 2024, numbers evened out as would be expected if inventories are to be kept under control. Currently, there are passenger car models (SUV and pick-up) and I assume the data also includes a delivery van. 

Rivian recently stated that it and the Volkswagen Group intend to enter a joint venture to create vehicle platforms to be used in both companies’ future electric vehicles. The Volkswagen Group will invest an initial $1 billion in Rivian, with up to $4 billion in planned additional investment. So that seems to be very positive news for this fledgling electric car manufacturer. 

Lucid Deliveries/Production : 2023-24

Lucid's deliveries were up 71% for the 2024 year to 10,241 units. This was in sharp contrast to production which was up just 7% at 9,029 units. 

I assume the leaning toward deliveries is reflective of the fact that stock levels need to be kept in check but it may be other factors at work. The electric car market is somewhat volatile. 

Comparing quarters for deliveries and each of them was up significantly. Production was more varied but it did end on a positive note with Q4 up 42%.  

The Gravity SUV arrives in 2025 so that will an important model for the company. It seems like a fine vehicle but the customers will decide its success. 

Data source: Lucid. 

Tesla Deliveries/Production : 2023-24

Tesla warned that 2024 was going to be a more challenging year for the company. It wasn't wrong. The electric vehicle market is getting model saturated and volume is plateauing. Without incentives electric car sales would be falling as is the case of New Zealand. Tesla experienced two consecutive quarter downturns for the first time ever but Q3 and Q4 almost redressed that. 

Deliveries and production were down 1% and 4% respectively. The Cybertruck came much later than desired but it clearly hasn't delivered the volume that was anticipated. Tesla doesn't give a breakdown by model. Fourth quarter deliveries of 2023 were narrowly beaten by the 2024 equivalent but not so with production volume. 

The chart below shows the quarter, volume, the percentage of each quarter and the percentage increase or decrease compared to the quarter the year before. As the quarters for the year didn't correspond to the full year totals, I added an adjusted figure to get the true total, which was higher than when the quarters were combined. 

So in the end a slight drop in deliveries and sales, which is a new experience for Tesla. It always had to happen at some point but with the increase of electric car sales slowing, and even more telling intense competition, the end to stellar growth arrived in 2024. The number of nearly 1.8 million deliveries was still impressive though, as has Tesla's automotive journey has been.

Data source: Tesla.

Fisker Deliveries/Production : 2023/2024 Q1

Fisker Automotive folded in 2014 after just approximately 2,000 Fisker Karma cars were sold. The marque was reborn when the California based Fisker Inc created the Ocean electric SUV model to be made at the Magna Styr plant in Austria. 

In late 2022 it was stated that the company had more than 63,000 orders for the vehicle. 300 cars were expected to be made in Q1 2023, going up to 8,000 (Q2), 15,000 (Q3) and 19,000 (Q4). 

It all sounded promising but what was the reality? Fisker released the figures for what actually unfolded as seen below. The 10,536 units produced in 2023 was reached from quarterly figures provided, which was slightly higher than the 10,193 that was the full year number given once the year concluded. 

Regardless, that was still over double the number produced compared to what was delivered for 2023. Clearly there was a disparity in what was planned as opposed to what transpired. A partner was sought from an existing major car making company. 

Production was halted after the first quarter of 2024 without a partner being secured. Magna Steyr is not expecting to make more vehicles. The 2024 figures vary slightly by source so I've estimated them - as seen on the right - but they should be close to accurate if not fully so. One thing is certain and that is thousands of cars are unsold. Fisker has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

It's not an unusual scenario that a start up company has high expectations but fails to deliver on them. Investors risk a great deal but in such a situation will almost certainly fail to get back what they outlayed.  

Lucid Delivery/Production : 2022-23

Lucid makes a quality car by all accounts but translating the concept into reality isn't easy. As Lucid reached two years of production, quarterly deliveries are around the 1,750 unit mark and production is just over 2,000. Apparently, over 700 kit set cars were sent to Saudi Arabia to be assembled but that figure may not yet be included in the chart below.

Lucid has just opened an assembly plant in that Kingdom that has an initial capacity of 5,000 cars per annum. Its potential capacity is 155,000. Being responsible for the first such plant in that country is somewhat of a coup I would have thought. 

I assume the reason for production is higher than deliveries is due to cars in transit and also building up inventory. In that case, there will be a balancing out in due course. 6,000 cars were delivered in 2023 and 8,400 were assembled. 

Tesla Global Deliveries : 2023

Tesla is maintaining an upward trajectory, initially many expected it to unravel at some point but it that never happen. It is now an established brand that managed to do what it needed to do very well. Startups are hard to succeed with but with the finances, a plan and good people it worked out.

Going back over the last three years, we see how deliveries have progressed. The only quarterly drops in previous quarters from 2019 forward were in Q2 2022 and Q3 2023 but overall that's a good outcome. As the numbers increase, constant quarterly increases will aturally become fewer.

Q4 2023 deliveries were up 16% on the previous year's Q3 figure (production 11%). Deliveries for 2023 were 1,808,500 which compares with 1,313,850 for the equivalent period in 2022. So is the prognosis good?

                                  Global sales were well up in 2023, that may have papered over some cracks. Electric car sales are stalling in many regions and some manufacturers have dropped prices to maintain their production volume. Global sales also have softened as 2024 approached. The new year looks like it may be challenging.

Data source: Tesla.

Rivian Delivery/Production : 2023

Rivian has released its sales and production data for the year of  2023. The models are the R1T pickup (pictured above) and the R1S SUV (below). So how is Rivian faring getting cars to customers?

Deliveries: 50,122  vehicles, up 147% from 2022. Q4 was up 73% on the equivalent period a year earlier but down 10% compared to Q3 2023. That meant the Q4 share of the year's deliveries was 27.9%. 

Production: 57,232 vehicles were manufactured, up 135% compared to 2022. This exceeds the company's expected production of 50,000 units. 17,541 cars were manufactured in Q4, up 75% on Q4 2022 and an 8% increase over Q3 2023. 

Some have been disappointed with the numbers but this is to be expected due to ironing out issues that crop up for what is a new operation. There was also a technology upgrade that reduced the production of one of the two models at the beginning of the year. 

Whatever the situation, the trajectory is on the up and 2024 will be revealing as to whether that will continue. 

Data source: Rivian.

Tesla's Amazing Feat

I recall reading opinions a few years back when some thought Elon Musk didn't know how to run a car company. Car making is a complicated and expensive undertaking and he was underestimating its difficulty. 

I admit I was wondering the same things myself but wasn't emphatic as I didn't have enough knowledge to be such. I did think he was overconfident but that may have been his way of assuring investors. Others' efforts to turn ideas and dreams into reality have struggled to deliver. It takes a lot of money to go from zero to hero in the car industry. 

Yet, it seems Tesla is making it. They got the funds needed. They charge heavily for add ons that are not very costly to implement. Production plants are tailored to making electric cars, therefore more efficient than mainstream competitors. The range is not excessive and complicated so materials and componentry are bought in volume and at competitive prices. 

All this leads to an important end product. Profit. I have read that profit margins are the highest in the industry. If so, talk of price realignments out of desperation is well wide of the mark. Factories running at full capacity are the best way to go, provided all the fundamentals mentioned above are in place. 

I must say the cybertruck looks hideous (futuristic amateurism) and a rush job. See the picture below if you doubt my opinion on aesthetics. It has been delayed to get issues sorted. Attractive design it is not but otherwise it has to be a well executed vehicle to succeed in a challenging but profitable segment of the industry. 

Tesla is surviving and by many accounts doing very nicely thank you. Mistakes have been made but they are not ignored and that has kept the reputation of Tesla cars intact. Elon doesn't make friends with everyone but that won't stop people from buying his cars. Nor his solar roofs (see picture above).