Rivian Deliveries/Production : Q1 - Q3 2024

How electric vehicle sales go in 2024 will be watched with interest by many. Newbies like Rivian are entering an environment of uncertainty and greatly reduced growth. Still, if the product is desirable then there is no reason for pessimism. Below are three quarters of delivery and production figures for 2024 and a complete 2023.

Deliveries are to the left and production to the right. It's important to note that deliveries were up 3% and production down 7%. The -25 and -36% you see below is comparing a full 2023 with only three quarters of 2024. The % column show the percentage of volume by quarter and the +/- a quarterly comparison with the quarter the year before.

Data & picture source: Rivian.

In 2023 production was higher as inventory increased. So far in 2024, numbers have evened out as would be expected if inventories are to be kept under control. Rivian estimated a production total of 57,000 which seemed a tad optimistic. Whatever the outcome, at least the two current passenger car models (SUV and pick-up) are in popular segments. I assume the data also includes a delivery van. 

Rivian recently stated that it and the Volkswagen Group intend to enter a joint venture to create vehicle platforms to be used in both companies’ future electric vehicles. The Volkswagen Group will invest an initial $1 billion in Rivian, with up to $4 billion in planned additional investment. So that seems to be very positive news for this fledgling electric car manufacturer. 

Nio Global Sales : Q1 - Q3 2024

Nio has aimed its products at the premium end of the electric car market. The figures below show that 149,281 cars were sold in the first three quarters of 2024. Q1 seemed to indicate a slight slowing of deliveries which wasn't surprising when compared to other marques. However, it took a turn for the better in Q2 which was in contrast to the equivalent quarter of 2023. Q3 has pulled back to a more modest 12% rise.

The -7% to the right is nine months compared to twelve in 2023. Deliveries have so far grown 36% in 2024. 

Nio hasn't rushed its expansion into new markets like some Chinese brands. From what I can gather, its sales and service networks are currently Norway, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark. That's not a bad thing as being impatient can be counterproductive. New markets will no doubt follow. 

Right hand drive is coming so 2025 seems to be the year that area of the global market will be addressed. Also, the ONVO brand has just been launched, adding 832 units to the 149,000 total. 

A breakdown by model sales for 2023 can be seen to the left. Crossover, SUV and passenger car are the three categories.

To see 2020 to 2023 sales, simply click here or put Nio in the search box.

Data & picture source: Nio. The ET9 is above and the ES7 is below. 

Tesla Deliveries/Production : Q1 - Q3 2023-24

Tesla warned that 2024 was going to be a more challenging year for the company. Three quarters in and it clearly is that way. The electric vehicle market is getting model saturated and volume is plateauing. Without incentives electric car sales would be falling as is the case of New Zealand. Tesla experienced two consecutive quarter downturns for the first time ever but Q3 averted yet another one. 

Deliveries and production are down 4% with three quarters of 2024 completed. 2024 was always going to be tough regardless of unforeseen problems. The Cybertruck came much later than desired and Tesla doesn't give a breakdown by model but it clearly hasn't delivered the volume that was anticipated. Tesla's record period is the fourth quarter of 2023 reflecting the reality that this year is the most challenging for the company so far.

The chart below shows the quarter, volume, the percentage of each quarter and the percentage increase or decrease compared to the quarter the year before. The third quarter is the only increase for 2024, with a 6% gain.

Data source: Tesla.

NZ Passenger Car Sales : Jan-Sep 2024

Registrations in 2024 for new cars were up 6% in September but down 23% YTD. This is due at least in part to an economic slowdown. It may also reflect the reality that constant price increases have now pushed new cars out of reach of many who would have otherwise bought one. Changes in rebate policies is disruptive too. 

Total sales thus far are 61,458 units. Added to that were tens of thousands of used cars, almost exclusively sourced from Japan. They are faring better than new, for now at least. A useful alternative to overpriced new cars. 

What a difference a year can make, especially when adding government policy uturns. Out went rebates and fees favouring or punishing purchases based on emissions and that caused a dramatic shift in models purchased. From April of this year, electric and hybrid cars which previously did not contribute to roading costs will be paying a road user charge. 

So things have been stirred up. The data below is for passenger cars only so light commercials and pickup trucks are not included. The Diff column below shows market share change, three quaters of 2024 versus a full 2023. What does an overview of the data show us? 

For brands strongly favouring electric models, MG (-35%), Tesla (-65%), BYD (-70%) and Polestar (-62%) all suffering market share collapse in a market already on a downward slide. It shows how much subsidies prop up low emissions cars. I didn't call them environmentally friendly as I wonder if they really do qualify to be called such.  

Premium marques are going better than mainstream brands which is normal when a market contracts. Chinese brands are still arriving, the Tank now coming under GWM but I can't ascertain how many. Omoda has been going six months and Jaecoo four. 

Best selling passenger car models are: Toyota RAV4 (6,309) which is way out in front, then the Mitsubishi ASX (2,656),  Mitsubishi Outlander (2,525), Kia Seltos (2,374), Suzuki Swift (2,128) and the Ford Everest (1,492).

The Ford Ranger is classed as a commercial vehicle in NZ so isn't included below but it is truly the best selling model with 8,729 units sold so far, ahead of the Toyota Hilux (5,668) and Mitsubishi Triton (3,544).

Data source: MIA.

Spain Passenger Car Sales : 2024 (Jan-Sep)

Registrations were up 6% in September and also up 5% YTD. Toyota is now getting comfortable at the top of the list. For some years now the top spot was constantly changing mainly due to a low percentage share for even the best selling brands. For instance, Toyota's 9.3% share is the highest since 2009 for the top selling marque. 

VW is losing ground to it and Spanish brand SEAT is doing well but is someway off being top again. In fact, adding the spin off Cupra marque would still fall short of Toyota's figure. Kia has had a bit of a tumble down the list but in such a tightly packed market of similar volumes, a drop is magnified. 

Top selling models are the Dacia Sandero (24,026 - pic above), Toyota Corolla (16,700), SEAT Ibiza (16,280), Hyundai Tucson (15,812), SEAT Arona (15,693 - pic below) and the MG ZS (15,004).

Data source: ANFAC.