BYD has recently been flying high. Massive increases in deliveries have been so large that it was hard to comprehend the scale of it all. It always had to hit a ceiling sometime, but when?
Q4 2025 gave a hint of what might have been coming, but sometimes quarterly figures can be aberrations rather than solid trends. A slow down of car sales and aggressive competition in China suggested the latter. Q1 2026 seemed to confirm that Q4 '25 wasn't going to be an exception.
Q2 made a comeback, but BYD was still below the lofty achievements of 2025. Electric cars were down 8% and adding hybrids to EVs produced a marginally better 4% drop. Then in Q3, a healthy 31% has BYD back on track.
Adding EV and Hybrid deliveries together, an 18% increase in Q3 is impressive, driven by EVs. BYD forecasts domestic sales at around 3.5 to 4 million vehicles. Exports are estimated to be around 1.5 million. That puts the total in the 5 to 5.5 million area. My initial reaction earlier in the year said the target is too high, but Q3 is making me reconsider.
So where does it put BYD in 2026? EVs are now up 1% YOY, and when including hybrid cars, -4%. That puts the targets well within firing range.
Data source: BYD. Picture source: BYD (BYD Dolphin & Denza B8).
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