BYD has recently been flying high. Massive increases in deliveries have been so large that it was hard to comprehend the scale of it all. It always had to hit a ceiling sometime, but when?
Q4 2025 gave a hint of what might have been coming, but sometimes quarterly figures can be aberrations rather than solid trends. A slow down of car sales and aggressive competition in China suggested the latter. Q1 2026 seemed to confirm that Q4 '25 wasn't going to be an exception.
Q2 has made a comeback, but were still below the lofty achievements of 2025. Electric cars were down 8% and adding hybrids to EVs produced a marginally better 4% drop.
Adding EV and Hybrid deliveries, BYD forecasts domestic sales at around 3.5 to 4 million vehicles. Exports are estimated to be around 1.5 million. That puts the total in the 5 to 5.5 million area. That is quite a reversal from Q1 2026. My initial reaction says the target is too high, but they must know what they are talking about.
Data source: BYD. Picture source: BYD (BYD Dolphin & Denza B8).
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