16 January 2024

Russia Light Vehicle Sales : 2023

Many car brands have been disappearing from the Russian car market. 

Registrations for cars sold by official importers were up 37% to 937,000. For unofficial imports, they were up 85% and their sales came to 129,000 units. Combined, registrations were + 58% to 1,128,000. 

In recent years sales have been around the 1.6 million mark or 400,000 per quarter so current registrations are still down but on the improve and maybe not as much as you might have thought. 

It becomes obvious the sanctions aren't working as well as expected and as time passes less so. Why? There is an ally to the east of Russia (as well as others) who is benefitting from dealing with Russia. There are also other unofficial imports through brokers.

Renault had to walk away from its extensive operations in Russia and whatever benefit that was supposed to bring isn't clear to me. It is now locally owned and still making cars. That's life. 

Lada took a 31.3% share YTD, a more than useful improvement compared to recent years and the best since 2006. Haval jumped to second with 10.5% of the market. A few departing brand names still appear on the list but many seemed able to exit swiftly. 

On the car side of things, the brands that are replacing the Western ones are clearly seen. The vacuum caused by this exodus has given Chinese brands an opening they are not spurning. The Tank brand arrived recently and is already about to enter the top ten. 

The top picture is the Lada Granta which is still selling well despite supposed parts issues. The next picture down is the Haval F7. Then below the chart is a photo from Chery's Russian website, showing the Tiggo 7's rough road prowess. Impressive.

The 'Diff' column shows market share change.

Data source: AEB.

2 comments:

  1. While I appreciate the fresh supply of data, I find your assessment overly optimistic for Russia.
    While the country did not collapse to the level of North Korea, the signs and trends behind the figures give little reason to be optimistic, especially from the citizen's point of view.
    The market is now dominated by Lada with a stone age model. The Granta is their model with the least share of Renault parts, and the fact that they had to even downgrade that one shows the extent of struggle.

    Also what is more important, all the major manufacturers with Russian production stayed away. Renault had an extensive operation investing in Lada, but the Japanese and Koreans also produced hundreds of thousands of cars.

    The point of sanctions was not just to deprive those warry Russians "our finest Mercedes' and Passats", but to deconstruct industrial abilities that can be used to supply industry.

    These industries could be used for war supplies, and while Russia was producing high-end Lexus cars before 2022, now they produce Grantas with no airbag, ABS or catalyser.
    And you can bet the Chinese will not risk handing over any sophisticated models to be produced in Russia...

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  2. I enjoy getting some feedback.

    Russians were buying Grantas before sanctions when they could also buy western the best of the West. So many were and are happy to buy a 'stone age' car if it suits their budget.

    I didn't say much about the situation in Russia other than sanctions haven't been as effective as hoped. For those wanting something more than a Lada they are getting cars from somewhere as the large unknown figure shows.

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