Vinfast Deliveries : H1 2023-24

Vinfast is a Vietnamese car company that started out in 2022. Some of its earlier forecasts proved optimistic as is usually the case with newbies. The car industry is complex and starting up is fraught with difficulties, including initial questions raised over assembly quality and software glitches. 

The chart to the right shows 2024 as being down 38% but that compares half of 2024 with a completed 2023. It's actually up 92% comparing H1 periods. 

The full 2024 target is 80,000 units, or an increase of 130% which on the face of it is a sizable jump on first half deliveries of 21,747. How can they reach that? The new VF3 (picture below) is about to be released and has a large domestic order bank to deal with so I assume that's where much of the increase will come from. 

A plant to be built in the US has been scaled back timewise to manage the planned growth in a more measured way. A case of not so fast Vinfast and this is the best policy as reputation is so important. 

Data and picture source: Vinfast.

Global Premium Marque Sales : 2023

Total global sales of premium cars was up 14.6% for the ones listed below. It excludes luxury marques and brands. There are possibly some brands that would like to consider themselves premium and if you can think of worthy candidates missing, please drop a comment below. Numbers that are rounded are estimates based on information gathered. 

The BMW Group retains its leadership with over 2.5 million sales. Adding MINI puts a considerable distance between it and second placed Mercedes-Benz.  Audi's third place looks increasingly at risk with Tesla now breathing down its neck. 

Below then is a gap to Lexus and Volvo and then another to JLR and then it cascades down from there. JLR will do well to grow from here with Jaguar being turned into a boutique brand and Land Rover about where they want to be. 

Cadillac is facing headwinds in China but is hoping to enter new markets but retaining the same volume will be a challenge. Acura looks good but came off an unusually poor 2022. Polestar has hit a very low ceiling which isn't what they expected. They will be trying to rectify that. Fisker will disappear as quickly as it arrived.

China wants to enter the premium arena and already has a few in that field. Brand equity is very important at the premium level so nurturing that is what new entrants need to cultivate with care. 

Taiwan Car/LCV Sales : 2024 (Jan-Jun)

The figures below are compiled from more than one source. Registrations are down 6% in June and -1% YTD. There is import duty as protection but not suffocatingly so like virtually all other Asian countries with local manufacturing. 

Toyota leads and by a huge margin. Lexus is a popular marque here but to see it as the second best selling is remarkable. The fact that Mercedes-Benz is third shows that this is a reasonably affluent country. 

Some of the best selling models (rounded figures) are the Toyota Corolla Cross (14,100), Toyota TownAce (10,700), Toyota RAV4 (9,900), Toyota Yaris Cross (8,350) and the MG HS (8,250). 

Pictures Toyota Taiwan. 

Russia Car/LCV Sales : 2024 (Jan-Jun)

The AEB or the Association of European Business has been the source of sales by brand in Russia. As manufacturers abandoned plants in Russia and importers officially stopped importing, Lada and Chinese brands filled the passenger car void and Russian LCV manufacturers did the same in that segment.

An unusual aspect was that perhaps some sort of black market emerged where cars were still entering the country of brands that had officially left. They weren't broken down into marques but the numbers were not unsubstantial. 

Now the AEB is only reporting the top ten LCV sales by model, which are Russian brands. They also let us know that 703,765 car / LCV sales were sold for the six months of the year. 50,862 were unofficial imports through "alternative supply channels" for a total of 754,627. 

Why are sales of even official imports by brand no longer given? Well, they were all from Chinese manufacturers who maybe didn't want to be seen as selling cars in Russia. I'm speculating there but I can't think of another reason. 

So what we do know is that the best selling LCV in Russia is the GAZ Gazelle with 3,618 units sold, down from 3,923 in 2023. The UAZ Classic Commercial registered 1,228 units (1,211), the GAZ Sobol (1,009, up from 693) was next and so it goes down from there. Riveting stuff.  I can't see the point of future reports about Russia unless the data improves or an interesting development takes place.