Self Driving Cars Reality

Add to this animals, children, cyclists, debris, road
works etc and it's all too much for technology

Regular readers of this blog will know that my take on the hype over autonomous cars has been less than enthusiastic. One article I wrote on the subject can be found here which contains a Part 2 link. Alternatively, click on the 'Safety' label to the right. True self-driving cars in real world conditions always seemed science fiction to me.

Not long back a top Toyota man tasked with this said it now doubted level 5 autonomous was achievable anytime soon, maybe never. Steve Wosniak (co-founder of Apple) was a strong believer and invested in this but now says he's basically given up on level 5. He said roads offer too many unpredictable scenarios for a self-driving car to handle. He went on to say that the public has been misled into believing autonomous driving could match what a human can do.

So why did companies spend billions on something that may never achieve what was promised? Didn't they have smart people advising them? Aren't clever minds beavering away on this to bring it to a successful conclusion? Because the impossible is just that. As for the advice they got, well they should have hired me instead (wry smile).

Why am I so sure about this, as I have no training in this field? I simply took a step back and looked at the whole scenario. First, I decided that while some humans abuse the privilege of driving, when acting responsibly people have remarkable capabilities to anticipate, evaluate and react to unexpected and varying conditions. Can artificial intelligence even get close to that? Secondly, I believe that the human mind was made by a super intelligent designer and that it has amazing qualities man can never recreate.

Ferrari Production : 2017/18

After many years of capped production, Ferrari deserted that policy and has since gradually increased it. As the super car market was growing, it made sense to lift the number of cars made. As can be observed by the 10% and 5% growth of the past two years, it's cautious and no doubt sustainable, barring a downturn in the market.

The mid-engined 488 sports car is the main model, although its share of the total went down from 58% to 48%. The Portofino, 812 GTC4 range of grand tourers complete the range with a greater share of the pie. An SUV will inevitably be added to the range in due course.

Passenger Cars
15	16	Model	2018	%	+/-	2017	Share	+/-
1	1	488/458	4,503	47.8%	-13%	5,171	57.7%	21%
2	2	Portifino/California	2,255	23.9%	84%	1,225	13.7%	-44%
4	3	812/F12	1,495	15.9%	36%	1,101	12.3%	4%
3	4	GTC4	1,139	12.1%	-14%	1,326	14.8%	158%
5	5	Roadster	21	0.2%	-84%	131	1.5%	64%
		Others	3			2
		Total	9,416		5%	8,956		10%

Maserati Production : 2017/18

In 2012, Maserati only made 6,000 cars but things have moved on since then. The Ghibli was released in 2013 and during 2016 along came the first SUV the Levante. It quickly took over half the production volume. The Ghibli accounts for about 30%.

The downside to this upsurge in production has been the downturn in 2018. After a 23% increase in 2017, 2018 was hit with a 35% fall. It was to be expected, but maybe not the the full degree it happened. Still, the range has a more rounded out feel to it now.

Passenger Cars
15	16	Model	2018	%	+/-	2017	Share	+/-
-	1	Levante	18,768	54.7%	-37%	29,694	55.9%	66%
1	2	Ghibli	11,360	33.1%	-26%	15,446	29.1%	-10%
2	3	Quarttroporte	2,715	7.9%	-51%	5,577	10.5%	-12%
3	4	Gran	1,469	4.3%	-39%	2,408	4.5%	25%
		Total	34,312		-35%	53,125		23%

Alfa Romeo Production : 2017/18

Alfa production is only in Italy, so the figures below provide a complete picture. 2017 was 147,000 (+71%) but in 2018 it was 110,000 (-25%). That's quite a turn around but shouldn't be totally unexpected. Besides, back a few years in 2015, production was barely 60,000 so gains have been made.

When a smaller brand enters (or reenters) a new segment, pent up demand pushes up sales and then they go down. The Giulia and Stelvio did just that in 2017 but the big dip followed. That will continue in 2019 as the end of the fall occurs and as sales soften generally. Former FCA Sergio Marchionne had high hopes for Alfa but they were optimistic.

Passenger Cars
15	16	Model	2018	%	+/-	2017	Share	+/-
1	1	Stelvio	41,582	37.9%	-25%	55,703	37.8%	n/a
3	2	Giulietta	30,867	28.1%	-2%	31,374	21.3%	-32%
2	3	Giulia	28,538	26.0%	-41%	48,521	33.0%	107%
4	4	MiTo	8,274	7.5%	-24%	10,906	7.4%	-26%
5	5	4C Coupè	553	0.5%	-25%	741	0.5%	-62%
		Total	109,814		-25%	147,245		71%

Land Rover Production (UK) : 2017/18

LR's UK production has held up pretty well considering offshore facilities have been opening up. The Evoque and Discovery Sport are made in Brazil to a modest degree. The facility in China - making the same models - is somewhat larger. Now a new plant in Slovakia has started assembling the Discovery.

Despite the above, volume was +6% in 2017 and -10% in 2018. The new Velar helped offset the now being replaced Evoque and likewise now being updated Discovery Sport. So for 2018, the Range Rover Sport, Velar and Range Rover all increased in numbers made here.

Passenger Cars
17	18	Model	2018	%	+/-	2017	%	+/-
2	1	RR Sport	81,537	23.0%	3%	78,882	19.9%	-13%
6	2	Velar	60,722	17.1%	24%	48,845	12.4%	n/a
1	3	Evoque	57,982	16.4%	-31%	84,017	21.2%	-13%
3	4	Discov Sport	57,006	16.1%	-25%	75,516	19.1%	-15%
4	5	Range Rover	56,672	16.0%	1%	55,844	14.1%	2%
5	6	Discovery	40,506	11.4%	-22%	52,257	13.2%	31%
		Total	354,425		-10%	395,451		6%

Fiat Brand Production (Italy) : 2017/18

Fiat Panda

Fiat's Italian vehicle production was reduced in 2018, down 9% in total. Fiat has plants in several countries so this is only a part of the total production. The 500X model increased 13% while the rest fell in numbers. The Panda was down 12% and the aging Punto -48%. The Ducato van accounts for about 95% of the CV total.

With sales in Europe on a downward trajectory in 2019, one would assume a decrease will be recorded next year as well. The 2018 figure (481,000) was the lowest since 2014 (400,000).

Passenger Cars
17	18	Model	2018	%	+/-	2017	%	+/-
1	1	Panda	174,580	55.4%	-12%	197,299	56.5%	2%
2	2	500X	113,772	36.1%	13%	100,958	28.9%	-13%
3	3	Punto	26,659	8.5%	-48%	51,242	14.7%	-17%
		Total	315,011		-10%	349,499
Commercial Vehicles
17	18	Model	2018	%	+/-	2017	Share	+/-
1	1	Ducato	156,767	94.3%	-5%	164,227	90.5%	-4%
2	2	Panda Van	8,028	4.8%	-47%	15,181	8.4%	9%
3	3	Punto Van	1,396	0.1%	-31%	2,021	1.1%	69%
		Total	166,191		-8%	181,429
		Gr Total	481,202		-9%	530,928