The 'Superior' Autonomous Vehicle

A woman pushing a bike across a road is tragically killed by an Uber autonomous vehicle. It didn't seem to see here, despite the fact that she had nearly got across the path of the vehicle when the collision occured. The driver was momentarily distracted, which is an irrelevant point as I shall explain.

I was on vacation in Australia driving a large MPV. Approaching me was a person pushing a bike on the shoulder of the road, which was quite wide enough to do so. Just as I was nearly up to the person, they suddenly turned their bike onto the road in front of me. In a flash I did a frantic S movement away from the pedestrian/bike and missed them.

I looked back in the rear view mirror to see that the young man had pulled back off the road and was standing still. He looked disoriented as he took in the near miss scenario. The point is would an autonomous car have reacted a quickly as I did? In the case of the Uber vehicle mentioned at the outset, it had more reaction time. If the car I was driving was in autonomous mode and it didn't react, could I have intervened and avoided the impact? No! A human is at their sharpest while fully in control of their vehicle.

So what of Uber's autonomous vehicles? Here is a quote: Uber's self-driving vehicles are equipped not only with cameras, but with radar and lidar, which works like radar but uses lasers to detect objects on and off the roadway. 

Uber and other companies working to develop self-driving cars tout the safety of their systems not only because the vehicles won't lose focus on the road, like human drivers, but because they have superior sensing capabilities. 

Last fall, Uber officials showing off their vehicles in Tempe said their radar and lidar were able to detect objects, including jaywalkers, as far as 100 yards away and avoid collisions.

Source of quote: USA Today.

I question that these vehicles have superior sensing capabilities after seeing the photographic evidence. I cannot understand their jaywalker claim either, after this incident. One cannot expect new technology to be perfected without real world testing. The sad reality is people have, and will continue to die while this testing continues.

I would prefer it if they weren't overselling the current capabilities of the technology. I guess if they were candid about the present state of things, then they may not get real world testing permits. However, putting these vehicles out while not ready is dangerous. It seems to me the whole process is being rushed and unnecessary deaths are occurring as a result.

My condolences to the Herzberg family and friends of the family.

Autonomous Cars : Part 2

Those behind the autonomous car industry are a defensive bunch it seems to me. They have been putting cars on the road in real world situations to learn how to deal with it. Some of the results are less than impressive.

A while back a man driving a Tesla car was killed when it slammed into a truck while using its autopilot function. It was claimed that the driver was watching the movie at the time (this was strongly denied by his lawyer) and that he didn't have his hands on the steering wheel. Therefore Tesla seemed to take the stance it was driver error.

However, a safety agency report said Tesla’s Autopilot design also contributed to the accident. The 'autopilot' function was not designed to stop if a truck was crossing in front of it. The agency also recommended that vehicle manufacturers and federal regulators take steps to ensure that more advanced automation isn’t used in situations it’s not designed for.

Calling it autopilot is just plain stupid and dangerous if the driver cannot take his hands off the wheel at any time. That isn't autopilot. The system's inability to notice the dangerous situation unfolding surely means it wasn't ready to be put to use in a car. OK, the driver was trusting the system too much but to have to have your hands constantly on the steering wheel makes the autonomous system pointless.

In another more recent case, a small self driving bus had been put into operation and almost immediately was involved in an accident. A tech writer on board stated the truck driver couldn't see the small bus as he reversed into the space he required (see pic above). The accident was quickly described as human error.

However, what surprised me was how this machine was allowed to operate outside its play pen. There was plenty of space behind the pod to reverse into to avoid the slow motion scrape, but no it just stopped. Like a rabbit caught in headlights. It could have sounded its horn to warn the truck driver of its presence, but such a basic feature wasn't in its defensive arsenal.

My take: The move from basic to advanced autonomy is a long road, perhaps an impossible journey for human technology to ever pull off while unpredictable scenarios are part of the equation. True, failures are part of any learning curve. However, the speed to deflect any criticism away from the technology is disturbing. It may be to avoid negative publicity but to do so also come across as arrogance. Its a belief that technology is our future, a god we must trust in to take us to a better world. Yeah, right. All I can say is dreams are free.

Part one can be found by clicking here.

Canada Light Vehicle Production : 2017 (By Brand)

Guess where this factory is? 180,000 Ford Edge
SUVs rolled off the assembly line in 2017

Vehicle production in Canada was the lowest since 2010, so not a stellar year. The problem was passenger cars which were down to a level that you'd have to go back over 50 years for it to be lower. The good news is light trucks are holding up well. In fact it reflects a global trend.

Passenger cars: Four brands make the cars here, three are holding up well but GM has brought the total down. The Chev Impala and Camaro have gone in the past two year. The good news about that is its done and as long as other manufacturers don't follow suit then it should hold up from now on.

15	16	17	Brand	2017	%	+/-		2016	%	+/-
1	2	1	Chrysler	235,102	34.4%	-1%		236,336	30.6%	-13%
2	1	2	Toyota	210,073	30.8%	-12%		237,553	30.8%	-6%
4	3	3	Honda	209,205	30.6%	0%		208,771	27.0%	17%
3	4	4	GM	28,087	4.1%	-69%		89,318	11.6%	-56%
-		5	Ford	129	0.0%	n/a
			Total	682,596		-12%		771,978		-15%

Light Trucks: There was a general downturn here spread across the five car makers. Honda did manage a small gain. GM and Chrysler were the two worst affected but no models were dropped at least. 

15	16	17	Brand	2017	%	+/-		2016	%	+/-
2	2	1	Toyota	361,462	25.8%	-1%		364,165	23.3%	8%
1	1	2	GM	318,335	22.7%	-19%		394,949	25.3%	5%
5	4	3	Ford	254,025	18.1%	-6%		271,494	17.4%	35%
3	3	4	Chrysler	246,625	17.6%	-23%		321,555	20.6%	33%
4	5	5	Honda	219,229	15.7%	4%		210,767	13.5%	2%
			Total	1,399,676		-10%		1,562,930		14%
			Grand Tot	2,082,272		-11%		2,334,908		2%

Data source: Automotive News.

Summary: Just over two million light vehicles were made in Canada. How will the industry fare in future? That will depend on how competitive it is and also up to decisions made by company executives.  

Pick-Up Trucks 2015 : Top 50 Models

Pick-ups were once work horses that were utilitarian in execution. Today most are more car-like in comfort and finish, so private buyers have increasingly been obtaining them. They are more popular in some regions than others. In countries with an outdoor lifestyle - such as New Zealand - they have become extremely popular.

Easily NZ's best selling model

The biggest selling pick-up models are large vehicles sold in North America. Medium sized ones are selling everywhere else with some small models for Asia and emerging nations. US and Japanese brand names dominate the list, with Europe's lesser interest in this sort of vehicle reflected by their absence. However, Mercedes and Renault should soon be on the list with Navara based offerings.

	Rk	Model	2015	2014	+/-
	1	Ford F-Series	920,632	907,652	1.4%
	2	Chevrolet Silverado	670,187	592,514	13.1%
	3	Toyota Hilux	580,613	597,310	-2.8%
	4	Ram Pick-up	542,559	528,554	2.7%
	5	GMC Sierra	289,797	270,621	7.1%
	6	Isuzu D-Max	273,744	260,988	4.9%
	7	Ford Ranger	205,699	187,617	9.6%
	8	Toyota Tacoma	199,964	174,009	14.9%
	9	Toyota Tundra	131,433	126,639	3.8%
	10	Chevrolet Colorado	108,107	29,040	272.3%
	11	Fiat Strada	106,787	163,747	-34.8%
	12	Nissan Frontier	98,387	109,210	-9.9%
	13	Mitsubishi Triton (L200)	91,670	81,040	13.1%
	14	Great Wall Pick-up	90,866	150,362	-39.6%
	15	Volkswagen Saveiro	73,237	97,102	-24.6%
	16	Nissan Navara	71,329	78,067	-8.6%
	17	Volkswagen Amarok	65,290	69,692	-6.3%
	18	Mitsubishi Triton	60,719	69,181	-12.2%
	19	Nissan Pick-up	58,908	52,065	13.1%
	20	Daihatsu Grand Max PU	58,121	57,151	1.7%
	21	Suzuki Carry Pick-up	53,055	56,265	-5.7%
	22	Mazda BT-50	52,616	53,685	-2.0%
	23	Toyota Land Cruiser PU	49,593	41,370	19.9%
	24	Chevrolet S10	43,054	58,801	-26.8%
	25	GMC Canyon	36,564	5,168	607.5%
	26	ZX Auto Grand Tiger	34,828	34,572	0.7%
	27	Suzuki Ravi	33,008	13,267	148.8%
	28	Dongfeng Rich	32,119	57,858	-44.5%
	29	Nissan D22	30,623	42,399	-27.8%
	30	Iran Khodro Bardo	27,883	88,082	-68.3%
	31	Mitsubishi T120-SS PU	27,584	29,378	-6.1%
	32	Chevrolet Montana	24,369	36,950	-34.1%
	33	Zamyad Z24	22,940	27,892	-17.8%
	34	Holden Colorado	22,106	20,996	5.3%
	35	Foton Tunland	19,735	19,410	1.7%
	36	Isuzu KB	16,855	17,680	-4.7%
	37	Suzuki APV Pick-up	16,785	22,604	-25.7%
	38	Nissan Titan	16,357	16,580	-1.3%
	39	Saipa 151 Pick-up	13,548	20,359	-33.5%
	40	Foton Sup	12,608	13,541	-6.9%
	41	Huanghai Serie N1	11,934	14,700	-18.8%
	42	Ram 1500-3500	11,890	12,530	-5.1%
	43	Iran Khodro Arisun	10,934	-	n/a
	44	Chevrolet Luv D-Max	10,657	10,657	0.0%
	45	Jac Pick-up	9,526	9,132	4.3%
	46	Gac Gio Pick-up	8,687	11,784	-26.3%
	47	Ram 700	8,159	1,495	445.8%
	48	Bahman Cara	6,877	1,741	295.0%
	49	Chevrolet Tornado	5,964	5,375	11.0%
	50	SsangYong Actyon Spt	5,786	7,357	-21.4%

Data source: focus2move.

For more on pick-ups, try these if you wish.

2019: Australia/New Zealand/South Africa 

2015-19: Belgium Denmark France Iceland Italy Sweden United Kingdom

Argentina Brazil Indonesia Thailand

2015: World Top 50