30 March 2016

Japan Car Sales By Local Brand & Size : 2015

Daihatsu are a big mini car maker. Now 100% Toyota owned

Japanese brands dominate the local sales but didn't do so well in 2015. the reason can be seen below. With Japan reducing incentives to buy mini or Kei cars, the effect is of interest. Let's look at the facts.

Standard cars: They accounted for 32% of sales and were down 5.8%. Toyota was down 12% in this area, while imports were up marginally at +1.8%.

Small cars: Toyota increased to 56.4% of this category and held sales at the 2014 level. Overall they were down 5.1%.

Mini cars: This specialist area tumbled 17.8% with reduced incentives. Brands that do well here felt the impact, Suzuki in particular.

Total: Mazda and Lexus were the only brands to increase and they sell mainly and exclusively in the standard size car. Imports likewise are mainly of that category and fared better than the total market.


Standard
Small
Mini
Total
Toyota 491,649 -12.0%
761,460 0.0%
18,554 -21.9%
1,271,663 -5.4%
Honda 125,738 -9.9%
255,539 -16.7%
317,167 -14.2%
698,444 -14.4%
Suzuki 4,252 42.0%
72,404 -3.8%
427,496 -23.1%
504,152 -20.5%
Nissan 157,974 -12.1%
150,760 -15.7%
175,623 -16.7%
484,357 -14.9%
Daihats 261 -23.0%
1,363 -12.2%
466,517 -14.5%
468,141 -14.5%
Mazda 113,494 11.5%
73,769 44.8%
34,571 -25.5%
221,834 11.4%
Subaru 122,991 -1.6%
994 -37.4%
23,567 -13.0%
147,552 -4.0%
Mitsubis 30,639 -0.2%
8,496 -32.0%
47,819 -19.8%
86,954 -15.4%
Lexus 48,231 9.0%
- -
- -
48,231 9.0%
Imports 259,312 1.8%
25,159 -26.2%
90 -29.6%
284,561 -1.5%
Total 1,354,541 -5.8%
1,349,944 -5.1%
1,511,404 -17.8%
4,215,889 -10.3%

Data source: JAMA.

Summary: The reduction in assistance to Kei cars is the right move. It's out of date and artificially affecting car buying patterns. What the longer term policy is I do not know, but like any change the market will soon find its level. Car makers will adjust to meet the new situation.

Mazda isn't reliant on mini cars thankfully

Eastern European Car Production By Nation : 2014-15

The Lada Vesta doing its best under difficult circumstances

Production volume was down -0.2% which is basically zero. It all is about Russia and the poor market conditions there. The chart below shows ranking for the last five years, 2015 production, the percentage of the total, and increase or decrease. Across the small divide and we have 2014 production and percentage share. Now for a breakdown of nations:

Czech Republic: Škoda and Hyundai are the main manufacturers of cars along with a Toyota/PSA plant. Amazingly it is the largest car manufacturer in this area.

Russia: The big news out east is the fall and fall of Russia. It made a third of cars in this region in both 2012 and 2013, but now just 20.4%. When things improve, it will be back as the largest car maker.

Slovakia: This country makes more cars per citizen than any other country in the world. VW Group, Kia and PSA are the producers here.

Turkey: Renault, Hyundai and Toyota are the three largest brands to make cars here and an 8% increase was useful.

Poland: For years this country was a major car maker but fell from 3rd to 5th on 2012. Fiat was the mainstay of the industry but its fall knocked the numbers down. A revival in 2015 was welcome no doubt.

Hungary: Suzuki, Mercedes-Benz and Audi are the manufacturers here and volume over doubled in 2015.

Romania: Dacia and Ford are the two car makers here and things were flat in 2015. The good news is that Ford is going to utilise its plant better with the EcoSport model coming. The bad news it won't be until the end of 2017.

The Rest: Slovenia has Renault and Serbia Fiat but that is all. The Ukraine is in a bit of a mess as we know and suddenly Belarus turns up in 2013, possibly making Geely cars.

Double Counts: At the bottom of the chart, you will notice double counts. This happens when a car has sizable contributions from two sources and it comes down to which nation should count it as their manufactured vehicle. Sometimes both nations are considered the producer and it becomes a double count.

The CIS nations had 131,550 cars made there and counted elsewhere in the world too. The other nations (called Eastern Europe) had 123,600 of them. In total they accounted for 4.3% of the region's total


11 12 13 14 15 Model 2015 % +/-
2014 %

2 2 2 2 1 Czech Rep 1,298,236 21.8% 4%
1,246,506 20.8%

1 1 1 1 2 Russia 1,214,849 20.4% -28%
1,682,921 28.1%

4 3 3 3 3 Slovakia 1,000,001 16.8% 3%
973,370 16.3%

5 4 4 4 4 Turkey 791,027 13.3% 8%
733,439 12.3%

3 5 5 5 5 Poland 534,700 9.0% 13%
473,000 7.9%

7 7 7 7 6 Hungary 491,720 8.2% 119%
224,630 3.8%

6 6 6 6 7 Romania 387,171 6.5% -1%
391,422 6.5%

8 8 8 8 8 Slovenia 133,092 2.2% 12%
118,533 2.0%

10 10 9 10 9 Serbia 82,400 1.4% -19%
101,576 1.7%

9 9 10 9 10 Ukraine 25,941 0.4% 0%
25,941 0.4%

- - 11 11 11 Belarus 8,469 0.1% -9%
9,350 0.2%






Total 5,967,606 0%
5,980,688






CIS x2 cnt 131,550 2.2% -33%
196,442 3.3%






E Eur x2 cnt 123,600 2.1% 3%
120,000 2.0%

Data source: OICA.

The Škoda Fabia a success for the Czech Republic

27 March 2016

Western European Car Production By Nation : 2014-15


Volumes for Western Europe with car manufacturing came to 12.647 million in 2015, up 6.4%. That isn't surprising as the region's car sales improve. Measured against total world production, it was 18.45% (17.55% in 2014). The world total was only up 1.2% so a solid gain for this region.

It would be nice to have a breakdown by make for each country but I don't have that yet. That would add some reasons for what went on. So how about really brief summary by country?

Germany: I've said before Germany is about as high as it will go with units made. Wages cost should force mainstream models down, compensated by premium increases. The gain to Germany will be the average value of the cars made is going up. 45% of all cars made in the region is huge.

Spain: Benefiting no doubt from the European upturn and incentives in Spain to scrap cars. A 17.5% increase is sizable.

UK: As one car maker increases volume, another slips back, undermining predictions of bigger growth. With future JLR production to come from offshore, I'm thinking the 2015 number is not too far off a peak. The average value of each car made is high.

France: As you can see France was 2nd back in 2012, but now 4th. The French car industry was propped up by discounting but less so now, giving a more realistic figure. I imagine it will get to 3rd sometime but 2nd spot looks too far away now.

Italy: I have data back to 1990 and then Italy was the 3rd largest car maker here. It was 6th in 2014 but now up a place. The Jeep Renegade is no doubt the reason. It may be a long way down from days gone by but a 65% spurt was a welcome shot in the arm for Italian car manufacturing.

Belgium: I am sure the woeful 23.4% drop was due to the end of Ford production. Now that's dealt with, one could expect a levelling off now.

Sweden: It's all about Volvo, the only car maker in the country. Seeing as that car manufacturer had a good year, Sweden grew 22.6%.

Austria: I think the 2014 figure is too high, but that is what OICA says it was. With no car company to call its own, the reliance is on making them for others on a contract basis. That seems to work rather well.

Portugal: A minor car maker that will remain such because it isn't attracting new business.

Finland: Makes cars for others as is the case with Austria but at a more limited and exclusive level.

Netherlands: Another that makes cars for others. When Mitsubishi left in 2012, the following year was a zero. However, along came BMW with MINI production and cars are made there again.


11 12 13 14 15 Model 2015 % +/-
2014 %

1 1 1 1 1 Germany 5,707,938 45.1% 2%
5,604,026 47.1%

3 3 2 2 2 Spain 2,218,980 17.5% 17%
1,898,342 16.0%

4 4 3 3 3 UK 1,587,677 12.6% 4%
1,528,148 12.9%

2 2 4 4 4 France 1,553,800 12.3% 4%
1,495,000 12.6%

6 6 6 6 5 Italy 663,139 5.2% 65%
401,317 3.4%

5 5 5 5 6 Belgium 369,172 2.9% -23%
481,637 4.1%

7 7 7 7 7 Sweden 188,987 1.5% 23%
154,173 1.3%

9 8 8 8 8 Austria 131,380 1.0% -3%
136,000 1.1%

8 9 9 9 9 Portugal 115,468 0.9% -2%
117,744 1.0%

11 11 10 10 10 Finland 69,000 0.5% 53%
45,000 0.4%

10 10 - 11 11 Netherlands 41,870 0.3% 43%
29,196 0.2%






Total 12,647,411 6%
11,890,583

Data source: OICA.

Summary: A major car manufacturing region that keeps on doing well despite not attracting new car manufacturers anymore. The region's relative stability helps, as does the quality of the products made. I presume it is the leading manufacturing region for premium cars, which are selling well.