17 November 2015

Mature Market Vehicle Production : Germany

The VW 1500 Variant. I had a dinky car of the saloon model

Germany has held up well for a mature market. It has local brands so that helps keeping production from moving elsewhere. Of late being tied to the Euro is a huge benefit too. While many bemoan bailing out Greece, I feel that Germany gets more back when it comes to exporting cars. If Germany still had the Mark it would be much higher in value.

VW has always been the main producer, with Ford and Opel not that far behind. However, production for the latter two have of late lost German market share and production has slowly moved to countries with lower wage costs. That has been offset by an increase in premium production.

Will VW's cheating hurt volumes. Well not much for 2015 as it came so late and in 2016 things will get back on track. The 2014 commercial vehicle figure is a partial estimate thanks to truck maker MAN not releasing data. What is there to hide? I've noticed other Euro truck manufacturers going this way. However DAF are very open so well done to them.


Year Vehicle Car CV % CV

1945 6,800 1,300 5,500 80.9%

1950 306,000 219,000 87,000 28.4%

1955 909,000 762,000 147,000 16.2%

1960 2,055,000 1,817,000 238,000 11.6%

1965 2,977,000 2,734,000 243,000 8.2%

1970 3,842,000 3,528,000 314,000 8.2%

1975 3,186,000 2,908,000 278,000 8.7%

1980 3,879,000 3,521,000 358,000 9.2%

1985 4,446,000 4,167,000 279,000 6.3%

1990 4,977,000 4,661,000 316,000 6.3%

1995 4,666,000 4,360,000 306,000 6.6%

2000 5,527,000 5,132,000 395,000 7.1%

2005 5,758,000 5,350,000 408,000 7.1%

2010 5,906,000 5,552,000 354,000 6.0%

2014 5,960,000 5,604,000 356,000 6.0%

Summary: There will be little or no further growth as no new car plants are being built. Just the ebb and flow of demand to affect numbers.

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